Hawaii Real Estate Update | What the Q1 2026 Numbers Are Telling Us
If you have been watching the Hawaii real estate market and wondering whether the window of opportunity is open, the latest buyer statistics from Title Guaranty Hawaii offer some compelling reading , especially if the Kohala Coast Market is on your radar.
The Big Picture: A Quieter Market That Still Commands Premium Prices
Statewide, Hawaii recorded 3,345 property sales in the first quarter of 2026, down from 3,510 in the same period last year, a roughly 5% dip in transaction volume. Total sales value also softened, from $3.5 billion in Q1 2025 to $3.3 billion this year. On the Big Island specifically, 826 properties changed hands compared to 934 in Q1 2025, with total dollar volume moving from $818.1 million to $787.3 million.
What does that mean for you as a buyer? Reduced competition. Fewer transactions signal that sellers are working harder for attention — and in a market historically starved of inventory, that is a meaningful shift.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
| Statewide Sales | 3,345 | 3,510 | -4.7% |
| Statewide Volume | $3.3B | $3.5B | -5.7% |
| Big Island Sales | 826 | 934 | -11.6% |
| Big Island Volume | $787.3M | $818.1M | -3.8% |
South Kohala: The Luxury Corridor Holding Steady
The Kohala Coast, encompassing the sought-after resort communities of Waikoloa Beach, Mauna Lani, and Mauna Kea Resorts, as well as the Kohala Ranch uplands, accounted for approximately 20% of all Big Island sales in Q1 2026. That share is notable: the area consistently punches above its weight in both prestige and price per transaction.
Total activity on the Kohala Coast was essentially flat year-over-year: 166 combined sales in 2026 versus 168 in 2025 — a market that is holding its ground rather than retreating.
Who Is Buying in the Kohala Coast Market?
The buyer profile has shifted in a way that should catch your attention. In Q1 2025, California buyers dominated the out-of-state category with 44 transactions totaling a remarkable $201.2 million. In Q1 2026, California buyers dropped to 23 transactions at $87.6 million. That is a significant pullback , likely reflecting economic headwinds in the Bay Area tech sector and broader California wealth dynamics.
The gap, however, is being filled, and then some, by buyers from other states:
- Colorado jumped from just 2 sales ($1.3M) in Q1 2025 to 7 sales ($34.4M) in Q1 2026
- New York surged from 2 sales ($3.2M) to 6 sales ($45.7M) — nearly 15x growth in dollar volume
- Washington State remained consistent at 10–11 transactions, contributing $30.9M
- Local Hawaii buyers grew from 72 to 79 transactions, with dollar volume jumping from $90.4M to $134.7M — a 49% increase
The takeaway: South Kohala is attracting a more geographically diverse buyer base, reducing its dependence on any single feeder market. That is a sign of durable, broad-based demand.
Key InsightWhen local Hawaii buyers, who know the market better than anyone, are buying more and at higher values, that is one of the most reliable signals of underlying market confidence. |
Foreign Buyers: A Quieter Presence
Foreign buyer activity on the Kohala Coast softened in Q1 2026, with 4 foreign transactions compared to 8 the prior year. Canada and Japan both scaled back relative to 2025. That said, the transactions that did close were sizable — a single Canadian buyer represented $20M in volume, and Japan contributed one sale at $16.2M. Foreign buyers remain discerning, high-value participants in this market.
What This Means If You Are Considering a Purchase
The competition is lower, but the interest in the Kohala Coast Market is still real
Reduced transaction counts statewide and on the Kohala Coast are marginally down, but dollar volumes are holding reasonably well, a sign that the buyers who are active are still committed to premium properties.
Diversifying buyer demand reduces risk
The shift from California-heavy to a more balanced mix of Colorado, New York, and local buyers makes the South Kohala market more resilient. You are buying into a community with multiple demand pillars, not one dependent on a single source of wealth.
The resort corridor remains distinct from the broader Big Island
While Puna and Hilo are primarily driven by local buyers in the sub-$5M range, the Kohala Coast continues to attract mainland and international buyers seeking luxury resort living. If that is the lifestyle you are pursuing, you are in the right conversation.
The Bottom LineSouth Kohala is not a market in retreat , it is a market in transition. California’s pullback has created a short-term opening for buyers from other states to step into properties that might have faced stiffer bidding in prior years. With local buyer confidence rising, a steady overall transaction count, and continued foreign buyer interest at the top end, the fundamentals of the Kohala Coast remain intact. |
The Kohala Coast Market Has Shifted – Key Takeaway
Q: How did Hawaii’s overall real estate market perform in Q1 2026?
A: Statewide, Hawaii recorded 3,345 property sales in the first quarter of 2026, down from 3,510 in the same period a year earlier — roughly a 5% decline in transaction volume. Total sales value moved from $3.5 billion in Q1 2025 to $3.3 billion in Q1 2026.
Q: What were the Big Island sales numbers for Q1 2026?
A: On the Big Island, 826 properties sold in Q1 2026 compared to 934 in Q1 2025. Total dollar volume moved from $818.1 million to $787.3 million over the same period.
Q: How much of Big Island activity does the Kohala Coast represent?
A: The Kohala Coast — including Waikoloa Beach Resort, Mauna Lani, and the Kohala Ranch highlands — accounted for approximately 20% of all Big Island sales in Q1 2026.
Q: Did Kohala Coast sales activity hold steady year-over-year?
A: Yes. The Kohala Coast recorded 166 combined sales in Q1 2026 versus 168 in Q1 2025, leaving total activity essentially flat year-over-year.
Q: How did California buyer activity change in South Kohala?
A: California buyers completed 44 transactions totaling $201.2 million in Q1 2025, then 23 transactions totaling $87.6 million in Q1 2026 — a reduction in both transaction count and dollar volume.
Q: Which states increased their buying activity on the Kohala Coast?
A: Colorado rose from 2 sales ($1.3 million) to 7 sales ($34.4 million), and New York rose from 2 sales ($3.2 million) to 6 sales ($45.7 million). Washington State stayed consistent at 10 to 11 transactions, contributing $30.9 million.
Q: How did local Hawaii buyers perform in the market?
A: Local Hawaii buyers grew from 72 transactions in Q1 2025 to 79 in Q1 2026, with dollar volume rising from $90.4 million to $134.7 million — a 49% increase.
Q: What was foreign buyer activity like on the Kohala Coast?
A: Foreign buyers completed 4 transactions in Q1 2026, down from 8 the prior year, as both Canada and Japan scaled back. The closings that did occur were sizable, including a single Canadian transaction at $20 million and one Japanese sale at $16.2 million.
Q: How does the Kohala Coast compare to other Big Island markets?
A: Puna and Hilo are primarily driven by local buyers in the sub-$5 million range, while the Kohala Coast continues to attract mainland and international buyers seeking luxury resort living.